POLL-BASED
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Poll-Based Odds

Method
Our poll-based analysis sets itself apart from other probability models by focusing exclusively on the data from each state's latest qualifying poll. For each state, we compute the statistical probability of victory for each candidate based on the latest poll's sample size and candidate's polling percentage. From these individual probabilities, we then calculate the overall chance of winning for each candidate.

Senate Overview
The current Senate makeup consists of 45 Democrats and 2 Independents who caucus with them, alongside 53 Republicans, resulting in a narrow 53-47 majority for the Republicans. This year, there are 35 Senate races with the Republicans defending 22 seats and the Democrats just 13.

Senate Analysis
We calculate the probability for each Senate race, utilizing data from the latest poll in each state. Here are the Senate states where the probability of winning is 99% or greater for either party's candidate, as well as the swing states where the probability is less than 99%.


Democrats   47 Swing States  8 Republicans   45
(D)   Colorado
(D)   Delaware
(D)   Georgia
(D)   Illinois
(D)   Massachusetts
(D)   Minnesota
(D)   New Hampshire
(D)   New Jersey
(D)   New Mexico
(R)  North Carolina
(D)   Oregon
(D)   Rhode Island
(D)   Virginia
   
(R)   Alaska
(R)   Iowa
(R)   Kansas
(R)   Maine
(D)   Michigan
(R)   Ohio
(R)   South Carolina
(R)   Texas
(R)   Alabama
(R)   Arkansas
(R)   Florida
(R)   Idaho
(R)   Kentucky
(R)   Louisiana
(R)   Mississippi
(R)   Montana
(R)   Nebraska
(R)   Oklahoma
(R)   South Dakota
(R)   Tennessee
(R)   West Virginia
(R)   Wyoming
(I) - Independent Senators who caucus with the Democrats

Here are our Senate Swing States where the current chance of winning for either party's candidate is less than 99%.

The Path to Senate Control

For the Democrats to take control of the Senate they'll need to win 4 of the 8 Senate Swing states. They are currently favored in 6 Senate races: Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas.

To secure the necessary 50+ seats for Senate control, the Republican's will need to win 5 of the 8 races.
We mathematically solve for the overall odds for the Democrat and Republican to win the Senate from the probabilities assigned to each of the 35 Senate seats. With over 34 billion potential outcomes, each with its own probability and seat value, we compute the probability for every Senate seat combination, summing the probabilities where the Democrats secures 51+ seats, the Republicans secure 50+ seats.

Here are the expected Senate seat totals for each party:

We monitor new polls daily and adjust our probability forecast for Senate Control accordingly.
If the election were held today, our poll-based model projects that the Democrats would gain control of the Senate.
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