Real-money predictive markets or betting markets offers an exciting, alternate set of race odds to analyze. In 2016, with the success of the PredictIt marketplace, we began our market-based analysis of the Electoral College and the Senate using PredictIt's contract data. From the individual contract pricing, we calculate each candidate's implied probability of winning, adjusting for commissions.
Our market-based method determines the race probabilities for each party's candidate in each of the 18 competitive Senate races at PredictIt. The remaining 17 races are not competitive and assumed to have a 100% probability for the Safe party. However, each race can be set to any desired probability for either party through our unique probability sliders.
The Senate Wizard ℠ lists the 35 Senate races and displays the live odds from the 18 market-based races. From the individual race odds, we calculate the overall odds for each party to win from over 34 billion possible outcomes. These odds are updated every 5 minutes!
Here is a recent snapshot of our market-based Senate projection.