Method
Real-money market-based pricing offers an exciting, alternate set of race odds to analyze.
In 2016, with the success of the PredictIt marketplace,
we began our market-based analysis of the Electoral College and the Senate using PredictIt's contract data.
From the individual contract pricing, we calculate each candidate's implied probability of winning,
after adjusting for the 10% commission on winning trades.
Our market-based method determines the race probabilities for each party's candidate in each of the 18 competitive Senate races at PredictIt.
The remaining 17 races are not competitive and assumed to have a 100% probability for the Safe party.
However, each race can be set to any desired probability for either party through our unique probability sliders.
The Senate Wizard ℠ lists all 35 races and updates the 18 market-based races every 15 minutes.
Here is a recent market-based Senate projection for the Senate, though you can see the virtually live projection at
The Senate Wizard ℠
Note: For visual clarity, race probabilities are rounded to a whole percent and a race where the probability is greater than 95% for one of the candidates is considered "Safe" for that candidate.
These "Safe" races have been excluded from the graph. The overall probability projection is determined using unrounded probabilities for all races.
Here is our market-based Senate Tracker since May:
Note: For visual clarity, races probabilities are rounded to a whole percent and a race where the probability is greater than 95% for one of the candidates is considered "Safe" for that candidate.
These "Safe" races have been excluded from the graph. The overall probability projection is determined using unrounded probabilities for all races.
|
