

Note: Reuters/Zogby is releasing a daily tracking poll for 10 states that they declare "battleground" states.
As a result, our daily update of the latest poll results almost invariably includes all of these polls since the midpoint of each of these polls is
just 1.5 days from the release date. We will continue to publish the results based on the latest poll results. To introduce some variety in pollsters
and for potentially less volatility in results, we are now also applying our probability model to the polls included in the RCP average for the
"battleground" states designated by Real Clear Politics.
We weight each of the polls by sample size (excluding the occasional poll that does not report a sample size) and compute the probability of a
victory for Bush and Kerry in each of the RCP battleground states. We calculate the probability of an electoral vote victory for Bush, Kerry and a
269269 tie, assuming that Bush and Kerry win the states that they've been designated to win in the nonbattleground states, as determined by
Real Clear Politics. We do this by determining the 2^18 (18 battleground states as of 102904) or 262,144 possible outcomes in the RCP battleground
states and calculating the probability and electoral value for each outcome.
Here are the results:
Probability analysis by LatestPollResults.com using Real Clear Politics data 
Date/Time  Bush Win  Kerry Win  269269 Tie 
110204 12:01am PST  90.22%  8.36%  1.42% 
110104 12:01am PST  58.14%  37.16%  4.70% 
103104 12:01am PDT  88.22%  10.15%  1.63% 
103004 12:01am PDT  73.88%  23.95%  2.17% 
102904 12:01am PDT  87.22%  10.97%  1.81% 
102804 12:01am PDT  76.58%  21.73%  1.69% 
102704 12:01am PDT  80.24%  18.12%  1.64% 
Latest News: ELECTION DAY 12pm  FINAL TABULATION before polls close.
Nov 02
 There are 5 states which have been updated with a more recent poll:
(Includes polls released through 112)
FL, GA, NH, NJ, WA
 New Hampshire moves from "tied" to "leaning" Bush.
 New Jersey moves from "leaning" Kerry to "tied".
The probability of a Bush win moves to 66.18% from 43.08%.
According to the latest poll results ,
 Bush has 23 "solid" states  representing 188 electoral votes.
 Kerry has 10 "solid" states and D.C  representing 153 electoral votes.
 There are 17 "battleground" states representing 197 electoral votes.
A state is considered "solid" for a candidate if the lead in the latest poll indicates that the probability of winning that state is at least 97.5%.
Note: Prior to Sept 30, a state was considered "solid" for a candidate if the candidate's lead was at least twice the margin of error (MoE).
This is roughly equivalent to a 97.5% probability of winning. However, many polling organizations report the MoE rounded to the nearest
whole number. To ensure the integrity of our calculations, we will no longer use the reported MoE. We will calculate the MoE using the percentages for
each candidate and the sample size of the poll. We will then calculate the probabilities of winning for each candidate using this calculated
MoE instead of the reported MoE.
Observations:
 Bush trails Kerry in the "battleground" states 88 (NJ tied).
 Bush leads Kerry in all states (+DC): 3119 (NJ tied).
 4 years later, only 3 states are leaning toward the opposite party:
Bush is leading in the same 30 states that he won in 2000  except for Ohio. Bush is also leading in Hawaii and Wisconsin, both which he lost to Gore in 2000.
Battleground States 
2000 Bush Win % 
# EV 
State 
% Bush 
% Kerry 
% N/O 
% MoE 
Latest Poll 
Pollster 
% Probability Win 
Bush  Kerry 
5.44 
6  Arkansas 
51 
46 
2* 
4.3 
10/31  11/01 
SurveyUSA 
88.34 
11.66 
8.36 
9  Colorado 
50 
47 
2* 
3.8 
10/30  11/01 
SurveyUSA 
79.08 
20.92 
0.01 
27  Florida 
48 
50 
1* 
4.0 
10/30  11/01 
ARG 
31.03 
68.97 
18.33 
4  Hawaii 
46 
45 
* 
4.0 
10/17  10/20 
SMS Research 
60.23 
39.77 
0.31 
7  Iowa 
47 
50 
2* 
4.4 
10/31  11/01 
SurveyUSA 
24.38 
75.62 
5.13 
17  Michigan 
46 
52 
2* 
4.1 
10/29  11/01 
Reuters/Zogby 
6.83 
93.17 
2.40 
10  Minnesota 
45 
51 
2* 
4.1 
10/29  11/01 
Reuters/Zogby 
6.63 
93.37 
3.34 
11  Missouri 
52 
47 
1* 
3.8 
10/29  10/31 
SurveyUSA 
90.75 
9.25 
1.27 
4  New Hampshire 
49 
48 
1* 
4.0 
10/30  11/01 
ARG 
59.82 
40.18 
15.83 
15  New Jersey 
42 
42 
1* 
3.0 
10/29  10/31 
Strategic Vision (R) 
50.00 
50.00 
0.06 
5  New Mexico 
48 
51 
0.5* 
4.1 
10/29  11/01 
Reuters/Zogby 
23.00 
77.00 
3.51 
20  Ohio 
50 
47 
* 
3.7 
10/30  10/31 
FoxNews/Opinion 
79.00 
21.00 
0.44 
7  Oregon 
44 
50 
1* 
4.0 
10/26 10/29 
MasonDixon 
6.06 
93.94 
4.17 
21  Pennsylvania 
48 
49 
1* 
3.9 
10/31  11/01 
SurveyUSA 
39.73 
60.27 
8.04 
13  Virginia 
51 
47 
1* 
4.1 
10/27  10/29 
SurveyUSA 
84.03 
15.97 
5.58 
11  Washington 
45 
51 
2* 
3.0 
10/29  10/31 
Strategic Vision (R)
 4.12 
95.88 
0.22 
10  Wisconsin 
48 
45 
1* 
3.7 
10/30  10/31 
FoxNews/Opinion 
79.49 
20.51 
197 Electoral Votes 


Bush States 
2000 Bush Win % 
# EV 
State 
% Bush 
% Kerry 
% N/O 
% MoE 
Latest Poll 
Pollster 
% Probability Win 
Bush  Kerry 
14.92 
9  Alabama 
57 
39 
2* 
4.0 
10/25  10/27 
SurveyUSA 
100.00 
0.00 
30.95 
3  Alaska 
57 
30 
8* 
4.0 
9/09  9/11 
ARG 
100.00 
0.00 
6.29 
10  Arizona 
56 
41 
2* 
4.1 
10/28  10/30 
SurveyUSA 
99.99 
0.01 
11.69 
15  Georgia 
55 
42 
* 
3.0 
10/29  10/31 
Strategic Vision (R)

99.99 
0.01 
39.53 
4  Idaho 
59 
30 
4* 
4.0 
9/08  9/10 
ARG 
100.00 
0.00 
15.63 
11  Indiana 
58 
39 
2* 
4.1 
10/27  10/29 
SurveyUSA 
100.00 
0.00 
20.80 
6  Kansas 
60 
37 
3* 
3.8 
10/25 10/27 
SurveyUSA 
100.00 
0.00 
15.13 
8  Kentucky 
59 
38 
1* 
4.0 
10/28  10/30 
SurveyUSA 
100.00 
0.00 
7.68 
9  Louisiana 
58 
32 
1* 
4.0 
10/17  10/22 
SLU 
100.00 
0.00 
16.92 
6  Mississippi 
51 
42 
2* 
4.0 
9/14  9/17 
ARG 
98.92 
1.08 
25.07 
3  Montana 
57 
36 
1* 
4.0 
10/18  10/20 
MasonDixon 
100.00 
0.00 
28.99 
5  Nebraska 
61 
32 
2* 
3.1 
10/15  10/20 
Omaha WH 
100.00 
0.00 
3.55 
5  Nevada 
53 
45 
2* 
4.0 
10/30  11/01 
SurveyUSA 
97.96 
2.04 
12.83 
15  North Carolina 
53 
45 
1* 
4.0 
10/29  10/31 
SurveyUSA 
97.82 
2.18 
27.60 
3  North Dakota 
55 
35 
2* 
4.0 
10/18  10/21 
Minnesota St. U 
100.00 
0.00 
21.88 
7  Oklahoma 
64 
34 
1* 
3.7 
10/28  10/30 
SurveyUSA 
100.00 
0.00 
15.94 
8  South Carolina 
54 
43 
2* 
4.0 
10/29  10/31 
SurveyUSA 
99.77 
0.23 
22.73 
3  South Dakota 
58 
46 
* 
4.5 
10/25 
Rasmussen 
99.60 
0.40 
3.86 
11  Tennessee
 58 
40 
* 
4.0 
10/28  10/30 
SurveyUSA 
100.00 
0.00 
21.32 
34  Texas 
59 
37 
2* 
4.1 
10/26 10/28 
Survey USA 
100.00 
0.00 
40.49 
5  Utah 
69 
24 
3* 
2.8 
10/21  10/28 
Dan Jones & Assoc. 
100.00 
0.00 
6.32 
5  West Virginia 
51 
43 
* 
4.0 
10/26 10/29 
MasonDixon 
98.08 
1.92 
40.06 
3  Wyoming 
65 
29 
2* 
4.0 
9/09  9/11 
ARG 
100.00 
0.00 
188 Electoral Votes 

Kerry States 
2000 Gore Win % 
# EV 
State 
% Bush 
% Kerry 
% N/O 
% MoE 
Latest Poll 
Pollster 
% Probability Win 
Bush  Kerry 
11.80 
55  California 
43 
54 
3* 
3.6 
10/29  10/31 
SurveyUSA 
0.09 
99.91 
17.47 
7  Connecticut 
42 
52 
3* 
4.0 
10/26  10/28 
Research 2000 
0.55 
99.45 
13.06 
3  Delaware 
37.6 
45.2 
1.3* 
3.9 
9/22  9/25 
West Chester U 
2.09 
97.91 
76.20 
3  D.C. 
11 
78 
7* 
4.0 
9/11  9/13 
ARG 
0.00 
100.00 
12.01 
21  Illinois 
42 
54 
3* 
3.9 
10/27  10/29 
SurveyUSA 
0.07 
99.93 
5.11 
4  Maine 
44 
52 
2* 
3.2 
10/28  10/30 
SurveyUSA 
0.46 
99.54 
16.39 
10  Maryland 
43 
54 
2* 
4.1 
10/27  10/29 
SurveyUSA 
0.28 
99.72 
27.30 
12  Massachusetts 
35.9 
50.6 
2.2* 
3.5 
9/25  10/05 
Merrimack 
0.00 
100.00 
24.98 
31  New York 
39 
57 
2* 
4.0 
10/26  10/28 
Survey USA 
0.00 
100.00 
29.08 
4  Rhode Island 
41 
54 
3* 
4.1 
10/25  10/27 
Survey USA 
0.05 
99.95 
9.94 
3  Vermont 
40 
53 
4* 
5.0 
10/10  10/12 
Research 2000 
0.32 
99.68 
153 Electoral Votes 
* Nader is on the ballot.
* Nader is not on the ballot.
Probability Analysis:
All possible outcomes for the "battleground" states are evaluated.
With 17 "battleground" states, there are 131,072 possible combinations (2^17) of how these states could vote.
Each of these combinations has a specific electoral vote value.
From each state's poll information, specifically, the % for each candidate and the poll's sample size,
we can calculate the statistical probability of victory for each candidate.
The probability of each of the 131,072 possible outcomes is then calculated and grouped by electoral value.
Example:
Calculate the probability of a specific electoral vote scenario, for example a 269269 electoral tie:
Of the 131,072 possible outcomes, there are 1,538 possible scenarios whereby Bush would receive exactly 81 electoral votes
from the "battleground" states to go with the 188 electoral votes that he has from his "solid" states.
(Kerry would receive the remaining 116 electoral votes from the "battleground" states to go with the 153 electoral votes
that he has from his "solid" states.) The electoral votes would be tied 269269.
The most likely possibility for a tie is:
Bush wins AR CO HI NH NJ OH VA WI
The probability for this scenario is 0.12%
The probability of a 269269 electoral tie is the sum of the probabilities of each of the 1,538 possible tie scenarios.
Currently, the probability of a 269269 electoral tie is 1.17%
Assumptions:
 Each state poll sample is an unbiased representation of the state as a whole.
 All states considered "solid," are actually won by the candidate to whom they are assigned.
 The winner of the popular vote in Maine also carries both congressional districts. If the districts are split, 3 of Maine's electoral votes will go to Maine's popular vote winner; the other candidate would receive 1 electoral vote.
 The winner of the popular vote in Nebraska also carries each of the 3 congressional districts. (This seems highly probable.)
 The Colorado referendum  Amendment #36 does not pass or is found not to apply to the 2004 election. If it passes and is applicable, the winner in Colorado will most likely receive 5 electoral votes, the loser would receive the other 4.
 All electors to the Electoral College will vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged.
Methodology:
 Only polls released to the general public are included. (no subscriberonly polls)
 No online or interactive polls are included. (ex: Zogby Interactive)
 Polls must include polling dates, percentage values for each candidate, and sample size.
 "Likely Voters" results are used, if available  with "leaners" is preferred.
 If Nader is on the ballot in a given state, we will use the results with Nader, if available.
 If Nader is not on the ballot in a given state, we will use the results without Nader, if available.
 A poll is listed only if the midpoint of the polling period is more recent than the midpoint of the currently listed poll. If the midpoint of the polls is identical, the poll with the greater sample size is used.
This site is updated as the latest poll results become available  the site is being updated daily.
Data for this site is compiled using the latest poll results from each state and the District of Columbia.
The Popular Vote is determined by taking the latest poll results of each state and weighting the results of each state according to its percentage of the total vote in the 2000 Presidential Election. If a poll does not contain a Nader option in a state where Nader is on the ballot, then for Nader's percentage only, we are using the latest poll where he was an option to derive his percentage of the popular vote.
Contact us with comments or for a customized analysis:
Email: stevedelano@cox.net
Phone: Steve Delano at 949.580.6855
