11/02 Summary
Popular Vote
Bush48.7%
Kerry47.1%
Nader/Other1.8%
Undecided2.4%
Electoral Vote
(270 needed to win)
Bush Solid188
Bush Leads77
Bush265
Kerry Solid153
Kerry Leads105
Kerry258
Tied15
Probability of
Victory
Bush: 270+66.18%
Kerry: 270+32.65%
Tie: 269-2691.17%

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Note: Reuters/Zogby is releasing a daily tracking poll for 10 states that they declare "battleground" states. As a result, our daily update of the latest poll results almost invariably includes all of these polls since the mid-point of each of these polls is just 1.5 days from the release date. We will continue to publish the results based on the latest poll results. To introduce some variety in pollsters and for potentially less volatility in results, we are now also applying our probability model to the polls included in the RCP average for the "battleground" states designated by Real Clear Politics. We weight each of the polls by sample size (excluding the occasional poll that does not report a sample size) and compute the probability of a victory for Bush and Kerry in each of the RCP battleground states. We calculate the probability of an electoral vote victory for Bush, Kerry and a 269-269 tie, assuming that Bush and Kerry win the states that they've been designated to win in the non-battleground states, as determined by Real Clear Politics. We do this by determining the 2^18 (18 battleground states as of 10-29-04) or 262,144 possible outcomes in the RCP battleground states and calculating the probability and electoral value for each outcome. Here are the results:
Probability analysis by LatestPollResults.com using Real Clear Politics data
Date/TimeBush WinKerry Win269-269 Tie
11-02-04 12:01am PST90.22%8.36%1.42%
11-01-04 12:01am PST58.14%37.16%4.70%
10-31-04 12:01am PDT88.22%10.15%1.63%
10-30-04 12:01am PDT73.88%23.95%2.17%
10-29-04 12:01am PDT87.22%10.97%1.81%
10-28-04 12:01am PDT76.58%21.73%1.69%
10-27-04 12:01am PDT80.24%18.12%1.64%

Latest News: ELECTION DAY 12pm - FINAL TABULATION before polls close.

Nov 02
- There are 5 states which have been updated with a more recent poll:
(Includes polls released through 11-2)

FL, GA, NH, NJ, WA
  • New Hampshire moves from "tied" to "leaning" Bush.
  • New Jersey moves from "leaning" Kerry to "tied".
The probability of a Bush win moves to 66.18% from 43.08%.
According to the latest poll results ,
  • Bush has 23 "solid" states - representing 188 electoral votes.
  • Kerry has 10 "solid" states and D.C - representing 153 electoral votes.
  • There are 17 "battleground" states representing 197 electoral votes.
A state is considered "solid" for a candidate if the lead in the latest poll indicates that the probability of winning that state is at least 97.5%. Note: Prior to Sept 30, a state was considered "solid" for a candidate if the candidate's lead was at least twice the margin of error (MoE). This is roughly equivalent to a 97.5% probability of winning. However, many polling organizations report the MoE rounded to the nearest whole number. To ensure the integrity of our calculations, we will no longer use the reported MoE. We will calculate the MoE using the percentages for each candidate and the sample size of the poll. We will then calculate the probabilities of winning for each candidate using this calculated MoE instead of the reported MoE.

Observations:

  • Bush trails Kerry in the "battleground" states 8-8 (NJ tied).
  • Bush leads Kerry in all states (+DC): 31-19 (NJ tied).
  • 4 years later, only 3 states are leaning toward the opposite party:
    Bush is leading in the same 30 states that he won in 2000 - except for Ohio. Bush is also leading in Hawaii and Wisconsin, both which he lost to Gore in 2000.

Battleground States
2000 Bush
Win %
#
EV
State %
Bush
%
Kerry
%
N/O
%
MoE
Latest
Poll
Pollster % Probability Win
BushKerry
5.44 6 Arkansas 51 46 2* 4.3 10/31 - 11/01 SurveyUSA 88.34 11.66
8.36 9 Colorado 50 47 2* 3.8 10/30 - 11/01 SurveyUSA 79.08 20.92
0.01 27 Florida 48 50 1* 4.0 10/30 - 11/01 ARG 31.03 68.97
-18.33 4 Hawaii 46 45 -* 4.0 10/17 - 10/20 SMS Research 60.23 39.77
-0.31 7 Iowa 47 50 2* 4.4 10/31 - 11/01 SurveyUSA 24.38 75.62
-5.13 17 Michigan 46 52 2* 4.1 10/29 - 11/01 Reuters/Zogby 6.83 93.17
-2.40 10 Minnesota 45 51 2* 4.1 10/29 - 11/01 Reuters/Zogby 6.63 93.37
3.34 11 Missouri 52 47 1* 3.8 10/29 - 10/31 SurveyUSA 90.75 9.25
1.27 4 New Hampshire 49 48 1* 4.0 10/30 - 11/01 ARG 59.82 40.18
-15.83 15 New Jersey 42 42 1* 3.0 10/29 - 10/31 Strategic Vision (R) 50.00 50.00
-0.06 5 New Mexico 48 51 0.5* 4.1 10/29 - 11/01 Reuters/Zogby 23.00 77.00
3.51 20 Ohio 50 47 -* 3.7 10/30 - 10/31 FoxNews/Opinion 79.00 21.00
-0.44 7 Oregon 44 50 1* 4.0 10/26- 10/29 Mason-Dixon 6.06 93.94
-4.17 21 Pennsylvania 48 49 1* 3.9 10/31 - 11/01 SurveyUSA 39.73 60.27
8.04 13 Virginia 51 47 1* 4.1 10/27 - 10/29 SurveyUSA 84.03 15.97
-5.58 11 Washington 45 51 2* 3.0 10/29 - 10/31 Strategic Vision (R) 4.12 95.88
-0.22 10 Wisconsin 48 45 1* 3.7 10/30 - 10/31 FoxNews/Opinion 79.49 20.51
197 Electoral Votes
 
Bush States
2000 Bush
Win %
#
EV
State %
Bush
%
Kerry
%
N/O
%
MoE
Latest
Poll
Pollster % Probability Win
BushKerry
14.92 9 Alabama 57 39 2* 4.0 10/25 - 10/27 SurveyUSA 100.00 0.00
30.95 3 Alaska 57 30 8* 4.0 9/09 - 9/11 ARG 100.00 0.00
6.29 10 Arizona 56 41 2* 4.1 10/28 - 10/30 SurveyUSA 99.99 0.01
11.69 15 Georgia 55 42 -* 3.0 10/29 - 10/31 Strategic Vision (R) 99.99 0.01
39.53 4 Idaho 59 30 4* 4.0 9/08 - 9/10 ARG 100.00 0.00
15.63 11 Indiana 58 39 2* 4.1 10/27 - 10/29 SurveyUSA 100.00 0.00
20.80 6 Kansas 60 37 3* 3.8 10/25- 10/27 SurveyUSA 100.00 0.00
15.13 8 Kentucky 59 38 1* 4.0 10/28 - 10/30 SurveyUSA 100.00 0.00
7.68 9 Louisiana 58 32 1* 4.0 10/17 - 10/22 SLU 100.00 0.00
16.92 6 Mississippi 51 42 2* 4.0 9/14 - 9/17 ARG 98.92 1.08
25.07 3 Montana 57 36 1* 4.0 10/18 - 10/20 Mason-Dixon 100.00 0.00
28.99 5 Nebraska 61 32 2* 3.1 10/15 - 10/20 Omaha W-H 100.00 0.00
3.55 5 Nevada 53 45 2* 4.0 10/30 - 11/01 SurveyUSA 97.96 2.04
12.83 15 North Carolina 53 45 1* 4.0 10/29 - 10/31 SurveyUSA 97.82 2.18
27.60 3 North Dakota 55 35 2* 4.0 10/18 - 10/21 Minnesota St. U 100.00 0.00
21.88 7 Oklahoma 64 34 1* 3.7 10/28 - 10/30 SurveyUSA 100.00 0.00
15.94 8 South Carolina 54 43 2* 4.0 10/29 - 10/31 SurveyUSA 99.77 0.23
22.73 3 South Dakota 58 46 -* 4.5 10/25 Rasmussen 99.60 0.40
3.86 11 Tennessee 58 40 -* 4.0 10/28 - 10/30 SurveyUSA 100.00 0.00
21.32 34 Texas 59 37 2* 4.1 10/26- 10/28 Survey USA 100.00 0.00
40.49 5 Utah 69 24 3* 2.8 10/21 - 10/28 Dan Jones & Assoc. 100.00 0.00
6.32 5 West Virginia 51 43 -* 4.0 10/26- 10/29 Mason-Dixon 98.08 1.92
40.06 3 Wyoming 65 29 2* 4.0 9/09 - 9/11 ARG 100.00 0.00
188 Electoral Votes
 
Kerry States
2000 Gore
Win %
#
EV
State %
Bush
%
Kerry
%
N/O
%
MoE
Latest
Poll
Pollster % Probability Win
BushKerry
11.80 55 California 43 54 3* 3.6 10/29 - 10/31 SurveyUSA 0.09 99.91
17.47 7 Connecticut 42 52 3* 4.0 10/26 - 10/28 Research 2000 0.55 99.45
13.06 3 Delaware 37.6 45.2 1.3* 3.9 9/22 - 9/25 West Chester U 2.09 97.91
76.20 3 D.C. 11 78 7* 4.0 9/11 - 9/13 ARG 0.00 100.00
12.01 21 Illinois 42 54 3* 3.9 10/27 - 10/29 SurveyUSA 0.07 99.93
5.11 4 Maine 44 52 2* 3.2 10/28 - 10/30 SurveyUSA 0.46 99.54
16.39 10 Maryland 43 54 2* 4.1 10/27 - 10/29 SurveyUSA 0.28 99.72
27.30 12 Massachusetts 35.9 50.6 2.2* 3.5 9/25 - 10/05 Merrimack 0.00 100.00
24.98 31 New York 39 57 2* 4.0 10/26 - 10/28 Survey USA 0.00 100.00
29.08 4 Rhode Island 41 54 3* 4.1 10/25 - 10/27 Survey USA 0.05 99.95
9.94 3 Vermont 40 53 4* 5.0 10/10 - 10/12 Research 2000 0.32 99.68
153 Electoral Votes
* Nader is on the ballot.
* Nader is not on the ballot.

Probability Analysis:

All possible outcomes for the "battleground" states are evaluated. With 17 "battleground" states, there are 131,072 possible combinations (2^17) of how these states could vote. Each of these combinations has a specific electoral vote value. From each state's poll information, specifically, the % for each candidate and the poll's sample size, we can calculate the statistical probability of victory for each candidate. The probability of each of the 131,072 possible outcomes is then calculated and grouped by electoral value.

Example:
Calculate the probability of a specific electoral vote scenario, for example a 269-269 electoral tie:
Of the 131,072 possible outcomes, there are 1,538 possible scenarios whereby Bush would receive exactly 81 electoral votes from the "battleground" states to go with the 188 electoral votes that he has from his "solid" states. (Kerry would receive the remaining 116 electoral votes from the "battleground" states to go with the 153 electoral votes that he has from his "solid" states.) The electoral votes would be tied 269-269.

The most likely possibility for a tie is:

Bush wins AR CO HI NH NJ OH VA WI

The probability for this scenario is 0.12% The probability of a 269-269 electoral tie is the sum of the probabilities of each of the 1,538 possible tie scenarios.

Currently, the probability of a 269-269 electoral tie is 1.17%

Assumptions:

  • Each state poll sample is an unbiased representation of the state as a whole.
  • All states considered "solid," are actually won by the candidate to whom they are assigned.
  • The winner of the popular vote in Maine also carries both congressional districts. If the districts are split, 3 of Maine's electoral votes will go to Maine's popular vote winner; the other candidate would receive 1 electoral vote.
  • The winner of the popular vote in Nebraska also carries each of the 3 congressional districts. (This seems highly probable.)
  • The Colorado referendum - Amendment #36 does not pass or is found not to apply to the 2004 election. If it passes and is applicable, the winner in Colorado will most likely receive 5 electoral votes, the loser would receive the other 4.
  • All electors to the Electoral College will vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged.
Methodology:
  • Only polls released to the general public are included. (no subscriber-only polls)
  • No online or interactive polls are included. (ex: Zogby Interactive)
  • Polls must include polling dates, percentage values for each candidate, and sample size.
  • "Likely Voters" results are used, if available - with "leaners" is preferred.
  • If Nader is on the ballot in a given state, we will use the results with Nader, if available.
  • If Nader is not on the ballot in a given state, we will use the results without Nader, if available.
  • A poll is listed only if the mid-point of the polling period is more recent than the mid-point of the currently listed poll. If the mid-point of the polls is identical, the poll with the greater sample size is used.
This site is updated as the latest poll results become available - the site is being updated daily.
Data for this site is compiled using the latest poll results from each state and the District of Columbia.

The Popular Vote is determined by taking the latest poll results of each state and weighting the results of each state according to its percentage of the total vote in the 2000 Presidential Election. If a poll does not contain a Nader option in a state where Nader is on the ballot, then for Nader's percentage only, we are using the latest poll where he was an option to derive his percentage of the popular vote.

Contact us with comments or for a customized analysis:
Email: stevedelano@cox.net
Phone: Steve Delano at 949.580.6855