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LatestPollResults offers an unbiased, statistically-based probability analysis of the Presidential election. We have a perfect record since we began our analysis in 2000. After determining each candidate's odds of winning in each of the 50 states and D.C., we mathematically compute the probability of every possible electoral vote combination to obtain each candidate's overall odds of winning the election. We also adapt our mathematical engine to project which party will control the Senate and the House. Below is a live snapshot of our overall projections using state-level probabilities derived from current market-based pricing:
					
				

				

				
"LIVE" ELECTION ODDS
Calculating... President Senate House
Democrats ...  ...  ... 
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www.LiveElectionOdds.com

Historically, to determine state-level odds for each candidate, we've analyzed the latest poll in each state. Real-money market-based pricing offers a new, exciting, live, alternative set of state-level odds. Currently, PredictIt.org offers market contracts on 45 different states for the Presidential election, 16 contracts for the Senate, and 18 for the House. Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral votes by congressional districts and there are market contracts available for the 2nd congressional district in each state. Traders buy or sell contracts based on which party they believe will win in a particular state.

Every minute, we obtain fresh market pricing for each of these contracts, and determine the implicit state-level odds for each candidate or party to win, after adjusting for PredictIt's commission. With 49 states and congressional districts, there are 2^49 possible outcomes - over 562 trillion! To obtain the overall odds of winning the election, we compute the probability for every possible electoral vote combination, including the possibility of a 269-269 tie. In case of a tie, the House selects the President. Thus, the odds of a 269-269 tie are prorated according to the odds in the House race. Our "live" probabilities are not future projections. They reflect the outcome assuming the election is held today.

www.LiveElectionOdds.com

The current Senate consists of 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats. This year there are 34 Senate seats up for regular election. Of those, 24 seats are held by Republicans and 10 by Democrats. There are 15 seats which are competitive, 12 are considered safe for the Republicans and 7 safe for the Democrats. This leaves the seat count at 42 for the Republicans and 43 for the Democrats, assuming the Independents caucus with the Democrats.

PredictIt has contracts for 16 Senate races, including California which is a race between 2 Democrats. To obtain the overall odds of winning the Senate, we compute live odds for each race and the probability for every possible Senate seat combination, including the possibility of a 50-50 tie. If the Republicans end up with 50 seats, control of the Senate will be determined by the party which wins the Presidency, since the Vice-President casts the tie-breaking vote. Thus, the odds of a 50-50 tie are prorated according to the odds in the Presidential race.

www.LiveElectionOdds.com

For 2016, we begin our probability analysis of the House. Currently, of the 435 House seats, Republicans hold 247 seats, Democrats hold 186 seats, and there are 2 vacancies. In previous elections, determining probabilities for each House race was not possible as polling on House races is scarce. However, for 2016, PredictIt has market contracts for 18 competitive House races and PredictWise.com lists their probability for all 435 House races. In our analysis of the House, if the House race has PredictIt contracts, we're using the market-based odds; if not, we're using the odds from PredictWise. To obtain the overall odds of winning the House, we compute the probability for every possible House seat combination.


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