POLL-BASED
ODDS
MARKET-BASED
ODDS
THE WIZARD
OF ODDS ℠
THE SENATE
WIZARD ℠
OUR TRACK
RECORD
ABOUT
US

Updated October 11, 2024 @9:25am ET - 25 Days to Election Day
  • 19 new qualifying polls yesterday!
  • Trump now slightly favored in our market-based odds.
  • Trump with a small lead in our poll-based analysis.
  • The presidential race remains highly competitive.
  • Republicans are favored to regain control of the Senate.

  • Presidential Forecast
    Poll-based Odds

      Market-based Odds


    Senate Forecast
    Poll-based Odds

      Market-based Odds


    For 24 years, LatestPollResults.com has provided an unbiased probability analysis of the Electoral College. Our poll-based model has accurately predicted the last 6 presidential elections, with 3 forecasts for each party:

    Year 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
      Projected Winner   Bush Bush Obama Obama Trump Biden
    Win Probability   71.2%     66.2%     99.96%     86.4%     67.8%     73.9%  

    Presidential Election Model - The Wizard of Odds ℠
    To forecast the presidential winner, we analyze the Electoral College by calculating each candidate's odds of winning the popular vote in all states, DC, Maine's two congressional districts, and Nebraska's three districts. Using these 56 individual odds and their corresponding electoral vote values, The Wizard of Odds ℠ computes the probabilities for every possible electoral vote combination, determining each candidate's overall odds of winning from over 72 quadrillion potential outcomes.

    Senate Control Model - The Senate Wizard ℠
    To forecast which party will control the Senate, we calculate the odds of winning for each party's candidate in all Senate races. The Senate Wizard ℠ computes the probability of every possible Senate seat combination, determining each party's overall odds of winning from over 17 billion possible outcomes.

    We provide an online version of our models, enabling users to create "what-if" scenarios using independent probability sliders for each race. Our models instantly calculate the overall odds of winning and determine the electoral vote or seat combination for each party.


    Poll-based Odds
    Our poll-based odds for each race are derived from the latest qualifying poll. We calculate the statistical probability of winning for each candidate based on the poll's sample size and reported percentages.

    Our model operates uniquely, focusing solely on the most recent poll conducted in each state or district. Unlike methods relying on polling averages, which encompass data collected over prolonged periods, we prioritize the latest polling data. We recognize that the national mood fluctuates daily, shaped by various factors such as stock market performance, prevailing global and local events, and even weather conditions influencing human behavior. By analyzing the freshest polling data from every state, our aim is to accurately capture the latest voting trends.

    Market-based Odds
    Our market-based odds are derived from prediction and betting markets, which we have been tracking since the 2016 election. For 2024, we calculate the probability for each race using bid/ask data from the relevant futures contracts at Polymarket, a leading prediction market platform. Market-based odds respond quickly to late-breaking news and can be a lead indicator pending updated polling results.

    Poll-based Odds vs Market-based Odds - Which is better?
    Both are valuable!
    Ideally, poll-based and market-based odds would closely align for each race, and thus have similar overall forecasts. By utilizing the latest poll, we access the most current data; however, polls only capture a snapshot in time, and their release date can be several days after the actual survey period. In contrast, market-based odds are continuously updated through 24-hour trading, providing real-time insights for every race, especially in response to late-breaking news or emerging trends. However, as election day nears, the frequency of polls will increase substantially, and our track record for poll-based projections of the presidential election has been perfect.

    Qualifying Polls
    To qualify for inclusion, a poll must meet these criteria:

    • The Poll must be listed at fivethirtyeight.com
    • The Poll must report the survey date(s), methodology, sample size, and the % of votes for each candidate.
    • The Poll must NOT be an internal poll, funded by a candidate or their PAC, or require a subscription to obtain relevant data.
    • The methodology must include a Live or IVR (Interactive Voice Response) component; polls that are exclusively online are excluded.
    • The Polling date, or the midpoint of a multi-day poll, must be the most recent for that race. If multiple polls share the same date, the poll with the larger sample size is selected.
    • The Poll must sample "Registered Voters" or "Likely Voters." We use the results with "Leaners," when available.
    • For Presidential polls, we use results with the most candidate choices. For example, if a poll reports 3-candidate race results and 4-candidate race results, we use the 4-way results.


    HOME
    POLL-BASED ODDS
    MARKET-BASED ODDS
    THE WIZARD OF ODDS ℠
    THE SENATE WIZARD ℠
    TRACK RECORD
    ABOUT US