offers an unbiased, statistically-based probability analysis of the latest poll in each state to project the winner of the Electoral College for the Presidential election. Since 2010, we've applied the same analysis to project which party will control the Senate.

Here is our track record reflecting our Election Day projections:
  • 2000 - 71.2% probability of Bush winning.
  • 2004 - 66.2% probability of Bush winning.
  • 2008 - 99.96% probability of Obama winning.
  • 2012 - 86.4% probability of Obama winning.
  • 2010 - 97.6% probability of Democrats controlling the Senate.
  • 2012 - 99.8% probability of Democrats controlling the Senate.
Each projection accurately predicted the election outcome. With each new state poll, we update our projections to reflect each candidate's probability of victory and the overall probability for the Democratic and Republican party to control the Senate.

LPR is tracking the latest projections of well-known analysts who also utilize state-level probability modeling and update their projections daily: FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver, Princeton Election Consortium's Sam Wang, HuffPost Pollster,, and The NY Times' TheUpshot. Each analyst uses a different set of criteria including poll selection, poll weighting, historical trends, etc. After the state probabilities for each candidate are determined, control of the Senate is then determined by either running thousands (or hundreds of thousands) of election "simulations" or by directly calculating the overall probability of winning. From the latest poll in each state, LPR calculates the probability of winning for each candidate. For all states with competitive races, LPR evaluates each possible outcome to determine the overall probability of winning, thereby eliminating the need for election "simulations."