LatestPollResults.com offers an unbiased, statistically-based probability analysis of the latest poll in each state to project the winner of the Electoral College for the Presidential election. Since 2010, we've applied the same analysis to project which party will control the Senate.

Here is our track record reflecting our Election Day projections:

  • In 2000, LPR projected that Bush had a 71.2% probability of winning.
  • In 2004, LPR projected that Bush had a 66.2% probability of winning.
  • In 2008, LPR projected that Obama had a 99.96% probability of winning.
  • In 2012, LPR projected that Obama had a 86.4% probability of winning.
  • In 2010, LPR projected that the Democratic Party had a 97.6% probability of controlling the Senate.
  • In 2012, LPR projected that the Democratic Party had a 99.8% probability of controlling the Senate.
Each projection has accurately predicted the election outcome. With each new state poll, we will update our projections to reflect each candidate's probability of victory and the overall probability for the Democratic and Republican party to control the Senate.

LPR will also be tracking the latest projections of well-known analysts who also utilize state-level probability modeling. To determine the probability of winning for a candidate in a given state, each analyst uses a different set of criteria including poll selection, poll weighting, historical trends, etc. Once the state probabilities are determined, the overall probability of winning is then determined by either running thousands (or hundreds of thousands) of election "simulations" or by directly calculating the overall probability of winning. From the latest poll in each state, LPR calculates the probability of winning for each candidate and for all states with competitive races, evaluates each possible outcome to determine the overall probability of winning, thereby eliminating the need for election "simulations."