November 6, 2012 (all polls)
Obama to be Re-Elected
Democrats to Retain Control of the Senate
LatestPollResults.com ("LPR") offers an unbiased, statistically-based probability analysis of state polls to project the party to win control of the Senate and the candidate to win the Electoral College. For each state, LPR calculates each candidate's statistical probability of winning the state, based upon data from the latest poll results. LPR determines the "safe" states for each candidate with the remaining states designated as "battleground" states. LPR's powerful calculation engine uses the probabilities of the "battleground" states to evaluate each candidate's probability for an Electoral College victory.
The final polls are in. As the votes are being counted, we are using the state probabilities as determined by the traders on Intrade and calculating the probability of victory for Obama and Romney. Here are the current probabilities for Obama in each "battleground" state:
These probabilities are automatically refreshed and updated every minute
There are possible outcomes for these "battleground" states. LPR calculates the probability of each outcome and the assocoated Electoral Vote values for each candidate. The sum of the probabilities for all outcomes where Obama exceeds 269 Electoral Votes is Obama's probability of an Electoral College victory, and similarly for Romney.
A few popular political websites publish their determination of what each candidate's probability of winning in each state, using their own methodology. LPR is applying its calculation engine to evaluate each candidate's probability of an Electoral College victory, based upon the set of state probabilities indicated at these websites:
- The Intrade.com prediction market.
Note: each state's probability and the probability of an Electoral College victory, is determined by traders at Intrade. The state probabilities indicate that the probability of an Obama Electoral College victory is currently greater than where the Obama contract value is trading.
- Nate Silver's political analysis at FiveThirtyEight.com.
Awesome site and analysis - a daily must read! Currently, the LPR model indicates that the published state probabilities are either a bit over-estimated or the overall probability for an Obama Electoral College victory is a bit under-estimated.
- The election website 270toWin.com.
Great site - the individual state probabilities align closely with the probability for an Obama Electoral College victory.
- the Electoral Map at HuffingtonPost.com.
For a candidate who is in the lead, the published individual state probabilities are higher compared to other websites. As a result, with Obama currently leading in most "battleground" states, the probability for an Obama Electoral College victory is projected to be virtually 100%.
LPR's interactive "Red State Blue State Game," analyzes up to 20 different "battleground" states. You can also override LPR's probabilities and enter your own estimated probability for any state. With each change, LPR dynamically updates the "Game" by calculating each candidate's probability of an Electoral College victory.
- Create your own electoral map.
- Assign states to each candidate.
- Define your own "battleground" states.
- Use the LPR probabilities or assign your own.
- Use our powerful calculation engine to calculate the probability of victory using your assumptions.
- Follow the election returns and update your map. Always know the probability of victory for your candidate and the probability of a 269-269 tie!
How safe is "safe?"
A state is considered "safe" for a candidate if the probability of winning that state is at least 97.5%.
In 2000 we correctly projected a Bush win (71.2%), with 23 "safe" states for Bush and 10 "safe" states plus DC for Gore.
In 2004 we correctly projected a Bush win (66.18%), with 23 "safe" states for Bush and 10 "safe" states plus DC for Kerry.
In 2008 we correctly projected an Obama win (99.9647%), with 19 "safe" states plus DC for Obama and 15 "safe" states for McCain.
Over the 3 previous presidential elections, 100 states (plus DC three times) have been identified as "safe." All "safe" states have been won by the candidate to whom they were designated as "safe."
If the election were held today, based on the data from the latest state polls,
the probability of Obama winning is .
LPR projects that Obama is leading by in the Popular Vote.
- Obama has "safe" states plus D.C representing a total of electoral votes.
- Romney has "safe" states representing a total of electoral votes.
- There are "battleground" states representing a total of electoral votes.