LatestPollResults.com offers an unbiased, statistically-based probability analysis of the latest poll in each state to project the winner of the Electoral College for the Presidential election. Since 2010, we've applied the same analysis to project which party will control the Senate.
Here is our track record reflecting our Election Day projections:
LPR will also be tracking the latest projections of well-known analysts who also utilize state-level probability modeling. To determine the probability of winning for a candidate in a given state, each analyst uses a different set of criteria including poll selection, poll weighting, historical trends, etc. Once the state probabilities are determined, the overall probability of winning is then determined by either running thousands (or hundreds of thousands) of election "simulations" or by directly calculating the overall probability of winning. From the latest poll in each state, LPR calculates the probability of winning for each candidate and for all states with competitive races, evaluates each possible outcome to determine the overall probability of winning, thereby eliminating the need for election "simulations."